The 75 th Anniversary of Atomic Bombing
The year 2020 has been the 75th anniversary of the Atomic bombing at Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan by US Airforce B29 Bomber (Enola Gay) on 6th and 9th Aug 1945 during WW2 which killed 80,000 and 40,000 peoples in the respective cities.
Ironically and Surprisingly this year also shares the 50th anniversary of the ratification of the Nuclear Non-proliferation treaty(NPT) under the UN mandate which comes into existence in 1970 with the objective of dismantling any Nuclear weapons and its respective technology in and around the world.
While both the events which I shared have been poles apart with each other yet a significant role to play in the world's peace.
Now the larger question is has the world learned anything from the devastation of Japanese cities and the more prevalent question is have the world done enough to dismantle the nuclear weapons which have been the motto of NPT and CTBT?
Well, let's analyze this and let our wisdom speak to us at the end of this article!
Before, I want you all to know the nuclear science behind Atomic Bombs and Hydrogen Bombs.
The US initially was reluctant to indulge in WW2 but the bombing done by the Japanese Airforce at the Naval station of the US Navy's Pearl Harbour in 1941 situated in the middle of the pacific ocean had changed the dynamics. Meanwhile, the news of the development of nuclear arsenals by Germans had reached the US President Roosevelt, the secret project Manhatten was started by US Army and the team of famous scientist Oppenheimer in New Mexico, and in 1945 under Operation Trinity with successful testing, the US became the first country on earth with Nuclear Atomic Bomb arsenal. Resulting this, the US Bomber dropped Atomic Bombs on Japan forced victorious Japan to back off in WW2.
Resulting this, the former insecure Soviet Union also started and at the end of 1949 became 2nd country to have full-fledged Nuclear arsenals to counter the hegemon of USA.
Later as everyone would have known the Nuclear Race have been started resulting in the France, UK, China too have tested their own nuclear weapons before the formulation of NPT in 1967 and the world have first P5 countries to have been the Nuclear weapon states.
As the Race has begun in 1945, every country in the world started feeling insecure and had started investing a huge chunk of the economy to develop their own nuclear arsenals and the Race has became even more intense when the cold war started just after WW2 when the 2 poles of power viz a viz US and USSR started increasing their own nuclear arsenals even more aggressively and hence the mistrust between both causes even more development of high strength Weapons.
The situation became extremely volatile between US and USSR when both countries in 1962 came in the eyeball to eyeball confrontation with their Nuclear weapons against each in Cuba, a Latin American country, giving rise to extreme mistrust against each but thank god the situation got diffused when USSR dismantled its Nuclear missiles in Cuba against the USA.
Now after the withdrawal from this, and changing the geopolitical calculations, the US rival has been changed from USSR to China a new cold war has been erupting, the US will more likely to deploy their ICBM's more intensively not only through their mainland but also through all the Naval fleets of the US more extensively to the Indo Pacific Commands over the Frigates, Destroyers, Submarines venturing near the South China Sea, Pacific oceans, Indian Oceans against China will create more vulnerability for peace.
But whatever dismantling of warheads happened, happened because of no. of agreements and treaties more or less between 2 world's power but as China starts growing in nuclear science and with $14 trillion strong economies, the pole has been shifted and now the US and other democracies have more insecurities from China compared to Russia seeing the belligerence of Chinese.
Hence, as per changing the poles of power, the existing treaties to curb nuclear arsenals must include China as this is the only country which is having a tremendously high range of ICBM(15,000km) even much much superior to the USA and Russia.
For comparison, I must tell, India has AGNI V ICBM with range of 5000km, and AGNI VI is under development.
China even being so superior in its arsenals, enjoys the freedom to develop and deploy any range of nuclear weapons and has never been arrested its nuclear program just like the US and Russia as it has been seen as underdeveloped during the cold war having economy equivalent to India.
But gone those times and its the high time, China should be included in all treaties with US and Russia otherwise the world would have been hijacked by the communist country China being superior in its warheads and missile technologies and we as an Indian shouldn't forget we share 3488 km long line of actual control that too unsettled and un-demarcated!!!
Ironically and Surprisingly this year also shares the 50th anniversary of the ratification of the Nuclear Non-proliferation treaty(NPT) under the UN mandate which comes into existence in 1970 with the objective of dismantling any Nuclear weapons and its respective technology in and around the world.
While both the events which I shared have been poles apart with each other yet a significant role to play in the world's peace.
Now the larger question is has the world learned anything from the devastation of Japanese cities and the more prevalent question is have the world done enough to dismantle the nuclear weapons which have been the motto of NPT and CTBT?
Well, let's analyze this and let our wisdom speak to us at the end of this article!
Before, I want you all to know the nuclear science behind Atomic Bombs and Hydrogen Bombs.
Atomic bombs
The theoretical concept is very simple but thank god practical applications are extremely tough.
As Explained by Sir Einstein E= MC2, here this equation explains the conversion of mass(atoms) into the energy. While this equation was given to utilize it for controlled peaceful use but later it helps even developing the Nuclear Weapons.
Now nature has more or less 2 Fissile materials namely Uranium235 and Plutonium239.
Let's base our study on U235. Now the Uranium is found in mines where 99.3% of solid is nonfissile U238 while rest 0.7% consists U235 which is fissile material and only responsible for Nuclear fission (Atomic Bombing).
The need is to extract U235 from the rest 99.3% U238, hence for these centrifugal forces are utilized, in a centrifuge when in the gaseous state the Uraniums are spins at approx. 90,000 revolution per minute (RPM) the huge centrifugal force (F= mrw2) placed the heavy non-fissile U238 occupies outside periphery of centrifuge cylinder while the fissile U235 being lighter and hence faces low centrifugal force get concentrated at middle of the cylinder of the centrifuge, hence can easily be separated out.
Now the obtained U235 with 80% of concentration can be used for Atomic Bombs(Nuclear Fission).
As Explained by Sir Einstein E= MC2, here this equation explains the conversion of mass(atoms) into the energy. While this equation was given to utilize it for controlled peaceful use but later it helps even developing the Nuclear Weapons.
Now nature has more or less 2 Fissile materials namely Uranium235 and Plutonium239.
Let's base our study on U235. Now the Uranium is found in mines where 99.3% of solid is nonfissile U238 while rest 0.7% consists U235 which is fissile material and only responsible for Nuclear fission (Atomic Bombing).
The need is to extract U235 from the rest 99.3% U238, hence for these centrifugal forces are utilized, in a centrifuge when in the gaseous state the Uraniums are spins at approx. 90,000 revolution per minute (RPM) the huge centrifugal force (F= mrw2) placed the heavy non-fissile U238 occupies outside periphery of centrifuge cylinder while the fissile U235 being lighter and hence faces low centrifugal force get concentrated at middle of the cylinder of the centrifuge, hence can easily be separated out.
Now the obtained U235 with 80% of concentration can be used for Atomic Bombs(Nuclear Fission).
Atomic Bombs is basically an uncontrolled Nuclear Fission Reactions where the U235 nucleus when slammed by neutrons, it forms U236 which is highly unstable material immediately converts into Krypton and Barium with the expulsion of 3 neutrons and mammoth energy is being released which was responsible to hold the 3 neutrons bind with each other.
The 3 neutrons released separately go into 3 different fission reactions and then 3^3=27 neutrons released at the end again go separately and the chain goes on and on and on until the fissile materials ended. This uncontrolled chain reaction creates mammoth energy capable of covert a land into rubble.
The 3 neutrons released separately go into 3 different fission reactions and then 3^3=27 neutrons released at the end again go separately and the chain goes on and on and on until the fissile materials ended. This uncontrolled chain reaction creates mammoth energy capable of covert a land into rubble.
Hydrogen Bomb
The hydrogen Bomb is tens of thousands of times harder than the Atomic bomb, has the potential to converts entire civilization into dread rubble. Let's examine.
A Hydrogen bomb is basically based on Nuclear fusion (Happened on Sun) which includes Fission and Chemical explosive too.
Now here the concept is a combination of the nucleus. Here we take the 2 different isotopes of hydrogen, "Deuterium" and "Tritium". Deuterium consists of 1 neutron and 1 proton while Tritium consists of 2 neutrons and 1 proton. Now to make the fusion of two nuclei, at the atmospheric temperature it is impossible as the like positive charge inside both nuclei repels each other, so here the required temperature is 100Millions degree centigrade, at such a high temperature the deuterium and tritium converts into plasma state and electrons and nucleus starts floating here and there, now this is the time when both nuclei attached with each other and formed Helium since helium is only having 2protons and 2 neutrons the extra 1 neutron ejected in the process with tremendously high energy released in the process.
Now to bring such high Millions deg. Celsius temperature first the Chemical explosives(TNT) are detonated which helps in the initiation of nuclear fission and the millions of deg Celsius temperature released helps in detonative the chain reaction of Nuclear Fusion which I explained above.
Now here the extra 1 neutron ejected in fusion makes participation in nuclear fission and more fission detonates more fusion and each fission and fusion encourages each others chain reaction and humongous, mammoth energy released by Chemical, Nuclear Fission and Nuclear Fusion combined called as Hydrogen Bombs explosion far far superior than normal Atomic bombs which were dropped in Japan.
To give the analogy, the Atomic bomb dropped in Japan was equivalent to 15000 kgs of TNT while the same weight of Hydrogen Bomb, if had dropped, would have been equivalent to millions of kg of TNT.
As one small act have the potential to change the entire scenario, likewise one small act in WW2 by Japan Airforce has changed the world and is the sole reason for Nuclear Race.A Hydrogen bomb is basically based on Nuclear fusion (Happened on Sun) which includes Fission and Chemical explosive too.
Now here the concept is a combination of the nucleus. Here we take the 2 different isotopes of hydrogen, "Deuterium" and "Tritium". Deuterium consists of 1 neutron and 1 proton while Tritium consists of 2 neutrons and 1 proton. Now to make the fusion of two nuclei, at the atmospheric temperature it is impossible as the like positive charge inside both nuclei repels each other, so here the required temperature is 100Millions degree centigrade, at such a high temperature the deuterium and tritium converts into plasma state and electrons and nucleus starts floating here and there, now this is the time when both nuclei attached with each other and formed Helium since helium is only having 2protons and 2 neutrons the extra 1 neutron ejected in the process with tremendously high energy released in the process.
Now to bring such high Millions deg. Celsius temperature first the Chemical explosives(TNT) are detonated which helps in the initiation of nuclear fission and the millions of deg Celsius temperature released helps in detonative the chain reaction of Nuclear Fusion which I explained above.
Now here the extra 1 neutron ejected in fusion makes participation in nuclear fission and more fission detonates more fusion and each fission and fusion encourages each others chain reaction and humongous, mammoth energy released by Chemical, Nuclear Fission and Nuclear Fusion combined called as Hydrogen Bombs explosion far far superior than normal Atomic bombs which were dropped in Japan.
To give the analogy, the Atomic bomb dropped in Japan was equivalent to 15000 kgs of TNT while the same weight of Hydrogen Bomb, if had dropped, would have been equivalent to millions of kg of TNT.
The US initially was reluctant to indulge in WW2 but the bombing done by the Japanese Airforce at the Naval station of the US Navy's Pearl Harbour in 1941 situated in the middle of the pacific ocean had changed the dynamics. Meanwhile, the news of the development of nuclear arsenals by Germans had reached the US President Roosevelt, the secret project Manhatten was started by US Army and the team of famous scientist Oppenheimer in New Mexico, and in 1945 under Operation Trinity with successful testing, the US became the first country on earth with Nuclear Atomic Bomb arsenal. Resulting this, the US Bomber dropped Atomic Bombs on Japan forced victorious Japan to back off in WW2.
Resulting this, the former insecure Soviet Union also started and at the end of 1949 became 2nd country to have full-fledged Nuclear arsenals to counter the hegemon of USA.
Later as everyone would have known the Nuclear Race have been started resulting in the France, UK, China too have tested their own nuclear weapons before the formulation of NPT in 1967 and the world have first P5 countries to have been the Nuclear weapon states.
As the Race has begun in 1945, every country in the world started feeling insecure and had started investing a huge chunk of the economy to develop their own nuclear arsenals and the Race has became even more intense when the cold war started just after WW2 when the 2 poles of power viz a viz US and USSR started increasing their own nuclear arsenals even more aggressively and hence the mistrust between both causes even more development of high strength Weapons.
The situation became extremely volatile between US and USSR when both countries in 1962 came in the eyeball to eyeball confrontation with their Nuclear weapons against each in Cuba, a Latin American country, giving rise to extreme mistrust against each but thank god the situation got diffused when USSR dismantled its Nuclear missiles in Cuba against the USA.
During this cold war, not only this 2 country have mistrust against each but almost every country in the world started feeling insecure and envisaged to develop their own nuclear weapons as the deterrent for any misadventure by nuclear state.
To restrict the precarious situation, the 5 Nuclear weapon state decided to restrict the Nuclear weapons only to 5 nation (US, UK, USSR, France, China) hence NPT was formulated to retard the Race.
To restrict the precarious situation, the 5 Nuclear weapon state decided to restrict the Nuclear weapons only to 5 nation (US, UK, USSR, France, China) hence NPT was formulated to retard the Race.
NPT(Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty)
NPT was formulated under the UN mandate and was an excellent measure against a nuclear race which ratified in 1970. This states that only the 5 nations would be considered as the Nuclear weapon state which has already developed Nuclear weapons before 1967 and all rest signatories to NPT must never acquire any Nuclear weapon in Future. Also, all 5 Nuclear Weapon State would simultaneously reduce their Nuclear arsenals and take it to exactly Zero and would make the world with zero nuclear weapons existed pre 1945. This NPT have helped to curb many ongoing nuclear weapon development programs around the world and was partially a success.
But no timelines and SOPs were fixed when and how this dismantling of weapons would be done by 5 countries and even after 50 years, everything is still highly ambiguous and like before all 5 countries still possess nuclear weapons and not only this but all 5 have significantly increased their strength and intensities even after being a signatory of NPT and the permanent members of United Nation security council(UNSC) who more or less are responsible to world's peace clearly shows their Dubious nature.
Hence, India for its own reservations had never signed NPT which was one of the best decisions.
But no timelines and SOPs were fixed when and how this dismantling of weapons would be done by 5 countries and even after 50 years, everything is still highly ambiguous and like before all 5 countries still possess nuclear weapons and not only this but all 5 have significantly increased their strength and intensities even after being a signatory of NPT and the permanent members of United Nation security council(UNSC) who more or less are responsible to world's peace clearly shows their Dubious nature.
Hence, India for its own reservations had never signed NPT which was one of the best decisions.
INF Treaty
Even being in the existence of NPT, nothing was going good between USSR and USA in the 1980s and the era of Cold war between both was at a peak, mistrust was highest between both, Race like before still going on and not only in terms of increasing arsenals but in terms of deploying Intercontinental Ballistics Missiles (ICBM) against each other, which could be shoot with a short period of notice.
USSR in the 1980s shares its western border in Europian continents, hence they had deployed their ICBMs to shoot down west Europe and the USA, while the USA also had done mirror deployment in west Europe in France, UK, etc to shoot in USSR territory. One misunderstanding could have the potential to converts everything in the rubble, residues, and whatnot.
But again to reduce such tense situations, both USA president Ronald Reagan and USSR's Gorbachev met in 1987 and formed an INF treaty for increasing trust and maintain peace.
This treaty states that both countries would dismantle their ground-launched intermediate missiles ranging from 500 km to 5500 km placed against each other, after this, the misunderstanding between both got reduced significantly but mind you the mistrust had never been removed as this treaty only talks about abandoning ground-launched missile system, what about Air launcher or Submarine-launched missiles?
USSR in the 1980s shares its western border in Europian continents, hence they had deployed their ICBMs to shoot down west Europe and the USA, while the USA also had done mirror deployment in west Europe in France, UK, etc to shoot in USSR territory. One misunderstanding could have the potential to converts everything in the rubble, residues, and whatnot.
But again to reduce such tense situations, both USA president Ronald Reagan and USSR's Gorbachev met in 1987 and formed an INF treaty for increasing trust and maintain peace.
This treaty states that both countries would dismantle their ground-launched intermediate missiles ranging from 500 km to 5500 km placed against each other, after this, the misunderstanding between both got reduced significantly but mind you the mistrust had never been removed as this treaty only talks about abandoning ground-launched missile system, what about Air launcher or Submarine-launched missiles?
Hence, this treaty although not being perfect but still holds ground to welcome world peace.
But recently the executive orders by the Donald trump state their country would exit from the INF treaty alleging Russians had not been following the treaty and had secretly producing and deploying intermediate-range nuclear missiles.
Along with that, the USA also wants this treaty to be a tripartite treaty that wants the Chinese to be a full-fledged member of the INF treaty.
This is so correct, during the formulation of INF treaty in 1987 only USA and USSR was capable of deploying intermediate-range missiles but with the evolving technology of Chinese, why should they be enjoying when the longest-range intercontinental ballistic missile named "Dongfeng 41" with 15000km of the range holds by Chinese Military?
For the world's peace and a responsible member of UNSC, china should be included in INF, but the recent disapproval of China made this INF treaty certain to fall apart which would result in both US and Russia again will start their Intermediate ground launch Missiles programs, which again would rise to uncertainty this time not only between 2 but between 3 countries.
But recently the executive orders by the Donald trump state their country would exit from the INF treaty alleging Russians had not been following the treaty and had secretly producing and deploying intermediate-range nuclear missiles.
Along with that, the USA also wants this treaty to be a tripartite treaty that wants the Chinese to be a full-fledged member of the INF treaty.
This is so correct, during the formulation of INF treaty in 1987 only USA and USSR was capable of deploying intermediate-range missiles but with the evolving technology of Chinese, why should they be enjoying when the longest-range intercontinental ballistic missile named "Dongfeng 41" with 15000km of the range holds by Chinese Military?
For the world's peace and a responsible member of UNSC, china should be included in INF, but the recent disapproval of China made this INF treaty certain to fall apart which would result in both US and Russia again will start their Intermediate ground launch Missiles programs, which again would rise to uncertainty this time not only between 2 but between 3 countries.
Open Skies Treaty
The US and USSR(Russia) with their wisdom had done a lot in history to ease down the situations but the mistrust and misunderstanding time and again deteriorated the peace deals.
Another example is the Open Skies Treaty, the excellent confidence-building measures adopted by 34 countries particularly the Russia and US effective from 2002.
The tensions between 2 countries happen when one has a huge mistrust against others, to resolve this, the treaty formulated which says all 34 signatories if anything found unusual and have the apprehensions and doubts that the other country has been deploying their troops, missiles, frigates, Aircraft carriers, Fighters and Bombers against them then within a very short notice of 72hours, the country having the apprehensions can move their Fighter Aircrafts without weapons armed with radars and sensors above the skies of the respective country and can do surveillance and reconnaissance, click high-resolution pictures to clear any mistrust and can reduce any escalated tensions.
But again the same executive orders were given by the USA to withdraw from this treaty again alleging Russians as they don't allow USA aircraft to move freely upon their skies particularly above Russian controlled Georgia. They also allege Russians Uses Tupulov TU 154 aircrafts much-sophisticated technology to move above their skies.
Dismantling from this treaty will again rise tremendous apprehensions.
Another example is the Open Skies Treaty, the excellent confidence-building measures adopted by 34 countries particularly the Russia and US effective from 2002.
The tensions between 2 countries happen when one has a huge mistrust against others, to resolve this, the treaty formulated which says all 34 signatories if anything found unusual and have the apprehensions and doubts that the other country has been deploying their troops, missiles, frigates, Aircraft carriers, Fighters and Bombers against them then within a very short notice of 72hours, the country having the apprehensions can move their Fighter Aircrafts without weapons armed with radars and sensors above the skies of the respective country and can do surveillance and reconnaissance, click high-resolution pictures to clear any mistrust and can reduce any escalated tensions.
But again the same executive orders were given by the USA to withdraw from this treaty again alleging Russians as they don't allow USA aircraft to move freely upon their skies particularly above Russian controlled Georgia. They also allege Russians Uses Tupulov TU 154 aircrafts much-sophisticated technology to move above their skies.
Dismantling from this treaty will again rise tremendous apprehensions.
New Start Treaty
START stands for Strategic Arms reduction treaty one of the finest arms reduction treaty signed between both US and Russia in the Czech Republic effective since 2011.
Please understand if a particular country has to shoot nuclear warheads, then they cannot shoot each warhead at once even if they want, as only the deployed warheads can only be shoot and it requires a lot to deployed a produced warheads. Production is one thing but the deployment of warheads is another thing. Deployed one can only be shoot with short notice.
The START treaty basically looks at the total deployed nuclear warheads of the US and Russia at any given time. Under this treaty, both agreed to reduce their "deployed" nuclear warheads which can be shoot at any time. This treaty caps the no. of deployed nuclear warheads in each country to only 6000 in numbers also giving space to each other's scientists and inspectors to make inspections regarding the deployed missiles in either of the countries and confirming each other whether they are abiding the treaty or not.
Now the treaty after 10 years from its signing in 2021 is going to lapse if not revised by both Presidents.
Donald J Trump has like previous orders have also said he wants Chinese inclusion in this treaty in 2021 but the recent disapproval from China is again likely to force the US to withdraw from this treaty as well after its lapse in 2021.
Please understand if a particular country has to shoot nuclear warheads, then they cannot shoot each warhead at once even if they want, as only the deployed warheads can only be shoot and it requires a lot to deployed a produced warheads. Production is one thing but the deployment of warheads is another thing. Deployed one can only be shoot with short notice.
The START treaty basically looks at the total deployed nuclear warheads of the US and Russia at any given time. Under this treaty, both agreed to reduce their "deployed" nuclear warheads which can be shoot at any time. This treaty caps the no. of deployed nuclear warheads in each country to only 6000 in numbers also giving space to each other's scientists and inspectors to make inspections regarding the deployed missiles in either of the countries and confirming each other whether they are abiding the treaty or not.
Now the treaty after 10 years from its signing in 2021 is going to lapse if not revised by both Presidents.
Donald J Trump has like previous orders have also said he wants Chinese inclusion in this treaty in 2021 but the recent disapproval from China is again likely to force the US to withdraw from this treaty as well after its lapse in 2021.
Now after the withdrawal from this, and changing the geopolitical calculations, the US rival has been changed from USSR to China a new cold war has been erupting, the US will more likely to deploy their ICBM's more intensively not only through their mainland but also through all the Naval fleets of the US more extensively to the Indo Pacific Commands over the Frigates, Destroyers, Submarines venturing near the South China Sea, Pacific oceans, Indian Oceans against China will create more vulnerability for peace.
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute(SIPRI)
The very current 2019-2020 Study by SIPRI, a world-known organization has released its research as of now in 2020, the World is having 13400 active nuclear warheads in which 90% holds by the US and Russian Federation and China holds 320, India 150 and Pakistan in between 150 to 160.
The number of bilateral, multilateral agreements to control nuclear race has also proved partially successful as the study states in middle of the cold war in 1986 the world accounts for 70,000 active nuclear warheads now limited to approx 14,000, a steep declination.
The number of bilateral, multilateral agreements to control nuclear race has also proved partially successful as the study states in middle of the cold war in 1986 the world accounts for 70,000 active nuclear warheads now limited to approx 14,000, a steep declination.
Perspective
But whatever dismantling of warheads happened, happened because of no. of agreements and treaties more or less between 2 world's power but as China starts growing in nuclear science and with $14 trillion strong economies, the pole has been shifted and now the US and other democracies have more insecurities from China compared to Russia seeing the belligerence of Chinese.
Hence, as per changing the poles of power, the existing treaties to curb nuclear arsenals must include China as this is the only country which is having a tremendously high range of ICBM(15,000km) even much much superior to the USA and Russia.
For comparison, I must tell, India has AGNI V ICBM with range of 5000km, and AGNI VI is under development.
China even being so superior in its arsenals, enjoys the freedom to develop and deploy any range of nuclear weapons and has never been arrested its nuclear program just like the US and Russia as it has been seen as underdeveloped during the cold war having economy equivalent to India.
But gone those times and its the high time, China should be included in all treaties with US and Russia otherwise the world would have been hijacked by the communist country China being superior in its warheads and missile technologies and we as an Indian shouldn't forget we share 3488 km long line of actual control that too unsettled and un-demarcated!!!
JAI HIND
Well written 💯
ReplyDeleteThank you buddy ✌
DeleteGood
ReplyDeleteThanks
DeleteCompact and complete.
ReplyDeleteWell, keep writing 👍
thank you !
DeleteVery well and concisely written Avinash!
ReplyDeleteThank you !
Delete